COVID-19: Down the Rabbit Hole of Death Rate Calculations - Part 10

Note: Written July 7

Where are we? Oh yeah, something about deaths only 5.9% above normal...

That statement was made when the graph below ended at the right edge of the purple box. Since this series of blog posts is taking me a bit longer than I thought to write, the number of cases - and therefore deaths - keeps marching on.

The June 25 number of deaths was 127,532. Assuming a 14 day lag from reported cases to reported deaths, the last cases would be June 11 and at that time the numbers were 2,091,812 total COVID-19 cases reported.

We once again come back to the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) and that brings us back to how many people were actually infected, not the number reported as cases.

In a previous post I calculated that Boston shows us 6 not reported to each reported. New York City shows 10 infected to each one reported as a cases. Those numbers were early on and I think them appropriate for what took place in April. I believe we have a better understanding of what is taking place looking at the Diamond Princess for example.

In this video, a screen shot of the data he was using shows this:

Let's assume that these numbers represent the population in the US as of June 11. What this video contends is that 37 + 21 = 58 out of 155 asymptomatic had the antibodies, Of those that had symptoms, 25 tested positive for the virus.

Assuming that those with symptoms go and get tested, and only positives are reported, we would have 25 reported and 58 unreported. So for every positive reported cases there are actually 2.32 more cases.

25 reported, 58 unreported for a total of 83 infected.

Using this logic...

The number of cases from June 12 through June 22 was 298,465. If we add to that 2.32 times more asymptomatics that were assumed not tested, that gives us a total of 990,904 infected.

With a total of 5447 deaths for that time period (14 day lag in reporting), we get a Case Fatality Rate of of 1.83% and an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.55%.

If my calculations are correct...if my assumptions are correct, by July 20th we will have 24,102 deaths from the cases reported after Memorial Day, May, 25 - a 56 day time frame.

• Cases after May 25 through July 6 = 1,320,681
• Estimated Infected = 4,384,661 (tested plus untested asymptomatic)
• Estimated deaths for this 56 day period starting on June 8th: 24,102
• Actual deaths reported from June 8 through July 20th - 56 days: ????

Out of the rabbit hole for a bit. 

I'll be back after July 20th to see how close my estimate of the deaths were. If it is more than what I calculated then the IFR is higher and we can expect a lot of deaths as we try to get closer to herd immunity of most likely 70% of the US population needing to be infected.

Part 11 coming after July 20th....