Note: Written July 7
You are looked at to do something...take precautions to keep people safe or hurt the economy. It is not an either/or decision, but unfortunately that is how it was presented.
You may have your own opinions about risk, about life and death...but in the end, the decisions you make are, at the very least, backed up by data that you can point to an say "...this is what I was told."
I am on my 9th post on this topic of the death rate associated with COVID-19 because the data has been contaminated and manipulated to paint a picture that ...it aint that bad...its no different than the flu...it will fizzle out...
So you are Donald Trump and your CDC gives you this 49 page report, that - let's be honest - you will not read. But you can look at the pretty graphs, and the graph you fixate on - because its the one that most people are concerned with - is the number of deaths.
And the CDC shows you this:
Even Trump can look at this graph and come away with an idea as to what is happening. But just to make sure, the CDC tells him:
This is the ninth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC; however, the percentage remains above the epidemic threshold of 5.9% for week 25.
Trump: "What's that mean?"
CDC: "Well boss, we are now only 5.9% higher in deaths then we normally would see at this time."
Trump: "6%...so we are pretty good...would you say tremendous maybe?"
CDC: Well if you look at the data, 6.9% of all the deaths that week were due to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19.
Trump: So 7% of the deaths were not just from COVID-19...its also the flu and pneumonia?
CDC: Well sir, if you look at how things were in 2018 with just the flu, we are less deaths than that...
Sycophants: And no one shuts down the economy over the flu!
Me: But sir...let me explain what's happening....
Sycophants: Shut up Bowman!
Well this is my blog and I don't have to shut up. Let's look at the graph with some context.
In a bad year, like 2018, the flu infected an estimated 45,000,000 Americans - and that was with a large percentage of people having received a flu shot.
On June 20th we had a total of 2,334,098 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Now go back and compare the the flu death bump for 60 million infected with the COVID-19 bump with as of June 20th 2.3 million infected.. .
When the CDC tells the people that as of June 25th we are only 7% higher than what we normally see at this time for all deaths it sort of sounds like we got it under control! We win! USA...USA...
That graph tells us a percentage of death due to infection. This works well if your goal is to convince the public that the red line is now about the same as what we see with the flu...and no one shuts down the economy for the flu. 7% higher...Pffft!
In the end though, it is all about the deaths that I am interested in. And right now, we are looking at this:
- 127,532 deaths as of June 25 from 2,091,812 COVID-19 cases as of June 11 (14 day death lag)
- 46-95,000 deaths from 45,000,000 cases for flu 2017-2018.
...and Mr. Toad's Wild Ride is not over yet.
When the CDC tells the president that we are only 5.9% higher in deaths then we normally see at this time, it sounds...reasonable. But it ignores the epidemic part of the equation...it ignores exponential growth...
The purple box represents what we assume to know about the number of deaths as of June 25th from the cases starting at 0 to June 11th.
The purple box represents 127,532 deaths. What will we expect from the red box? What will we eventually see at the end date of zero infections and the last death associated with COVID-19?
This is what the infection fatality rate becomes critical in the thinking process. If 5.9% above is acceptable because its only 5.9% above what we normally see, and below what we accept with the seasonal flu, then maybe all this worry over it being a concern is misplaced.
5.9% was the right edge of the purple box. What does the red box tell us?
This rabbit hole is way too deep!
Part 10
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