If they only had a RCRA permit...Part 7

Does Exide pose an imminent or substantial risk to the community?

The DTSC ordered Exide to cease operation on April 24, 2013 claiming that:

16.1 In a letter dated March 1,2013, the SCAQMD advised Exide that the HRA submitted by Exide in January, 2013 indicates the Facility poses a maximum individual cancer risk (MICR) of 156 in one million for an offsite worker receptor about 300 meters northeast of the Facility (primarily arsenic).

In addition to compromised stormwater piping that Exide self-reported, the HRA values for cancer and non-cancer risk were also used by the DTSC to claim the need immediately shut down operations on the grounds that these two situations met the 25186.2 conditions for DTSC action "necessary to prevent or mitigate an imminent and substantial danger to the public health or safety or the environment."

Assuming that fixing the stormwater pipes corrects and mitigates that issue, does Exide pose a "maximum individual cancer risk" now or at the time of the DTSC notice to cease?

Looking at Exide's HRA:

You will notice that arsenic is the primary contributor to the risk number that was quantified.  In the RRP, Exide states:

Analysis of the HRA results and concurrent research determined that approximately 90 percent of the above-tabulated risks were due to emissions of arsenic from the Hard Lead Ventilation System stack and that the source of that arsenic was the “leakage” of blast furnace process exhaust from its primary ventilation system into hooding served by the Hard Lead Ventilation System.

So if both Exide and the DTSC conclude that arsenic is the chemical of concern for the risk, eliminating or reducing the amount of arsenic put into the air would reduce that risk.  Exide made some modifications to their equipment and went back into the original numbers and recalculated the theoretical risk:

Promptly after AQMD approval of the HRA on March 1, 2013, Exide designed an isolation door on the charge chute to the facility’s blast furnace to minimize the potential for blast furnace process exhaust gases to be drawn into the hooding served by the Hard Lead Ventilation System. This door system was permitted on March 28, 2013, and became operational on April 4, 2013. This door remains closed except to open briefly when charge material is actually being added to the furnace, only a small percentage of the time. (1)

What if instead of calculating a theoretical risk we could agree on something a little bit more quantitative and easier to understand.  Let's makes some assumptions and hold them as true.

1. Exide should only be held accountable for the risk they pose over background.  That is, if you take Exide out of the equation and there is no difference in the amount of arsenic in the air, then the same risk is still present.  Exide is responsible for what they put in over that baseline.
2. We will assume that the cancer potency the SCAQMD used for arsenic calculates a risk of 16 in one million for one nanogram per cubic meter of air.
3. We will assume that the data collected by SCAQMD and reported in this document accurately reflects the actual amount of arsenic in the air near the Exide Vernon facility.
4. We will assume that April 4, 2013 the facility was in operation with the new controls put in place and on April 24, 2013 operations ceased.
5. We will assume that "the last week of June" is the 24th of June to indicate when Exide resumed operations.

What I am going to do is calculate the average arsenic concentrations for each of the monitors based on the data presented in the SCAQMD document.  I am going to do this for the following periods:

• April 4 to April 23 (new controls in place)
• April 24 to June 23 (Exide not in operation - background)
• June 24 to September 30th (Exide in operation last date for data provided)

I'll attach at the bottom of this post a gif of the spreadsheet I used to show the numbers that went into calculating these three time frames.  Here is what I came up with:

Based on where these monitors are placed...:

SCAQMD

According to SCAQMD's graph:

Source

The SCAQMD states that an average concentration of 1 nanogram per cubic meter equates to a lifetime cancer risk of 16.6 additional cancers.  I am not sure how they calculated that risk because it does not seem to jive with their written methodology for calculating cancer risk.

Based on California's 2003 "Air Toxics Hot Spots Program Risk Assessment Guidelines" the formula for calculating excess cancer risk look like this:

Appendix I - 4

The Inhalation Dose is based on this formula:

Appendix I - 2

Using their arsenic example for calculating the dose...:

Appendix I - 3

...I replaced 0,0015 micrograms with 0.0001 micrograms (1 nanogram).  The inhalation dose, based on 1 ng/m3 equals 3.8 x 10-8 mg/kg-day

To calculate the cancer risk per million, I replaced the Inhalation dose in the following example with the one calculated based on 1 ng/m3:

Appendix I-4

Based on an exposure of 1 ng/m3 the inhalation cancer risk is 0.45 chances per million.  That number is consistent with the cancer risk calculated by the WHO (0.66). [Cancer Potency checked 2011 most current]

So what does all this mean?

The DTSC gave an immediate cease operation order to Exide based on "imminent and substantial" harm to the public, claiming that:

Based on the Health Risk Assessment submitted to the SCAOMD, DTSC has determined that the Facility is operating its furnaces and its air pollution devices in a manner that is not sufficiently protective of human health and the environment, impacting as many as 110,000 residents in a large geographical area...

The HRA is a theoretical exposure calculated by Exide.  The graph SCAQMD put together represents actual concentrations of arsenic in the air. Before the order to cease operations was given by DTSC the SCAQMD had been collecting arsenic concentrations in the air in and around the Exide facility.

The SCAQMD calculated the highest monthly average of 3.33 ng/m3 from the off-site ATSF in May of 2012.  Assuming that all of that arsenic came from Exide - less the background I calculated (0.75) - this would give us a concentration of 2.58 ng/m3.

2.58 ng/m3 exposure equals a dose of 9.7 x 10-7.  With that dose, using the California HotSpot calculations, the excess cancer risk would be 11.67 in one million.

Would the highest amount calculated - before the modifications were made - be considered "imminent and substantial"?  That depends on how those two terms are defined.  Here is what the SCAQMD defines as "significant" in their Rule 1402:

Under the rule for air emissions, a cancer risk of 11.67 per one million would equal a risk of 0.11 per one hundred million and would not be considered "significant."

All of this information was available to the DTSC.  Heck if I can find it just using Google and a team of me, myself, and I, so could the DTSC.

Next Post: If they only had a RCRA permit...Part 8


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If they only had a RCRA permit...Part 6

April 24, 2013:

A separate report submitted to the South Coast Air Quality Management District by Exide demonstrates that emissions from the facility operations pose a significant risk to the surrounding community.

That's the reason DTSC gave for telling Exide to "CEASE OPERATIONS EFFECTIVE APRIL 24, 2013."

That report, called a "Health Risk Assessment" was required by the SCAQMD and approved by them on March 1, 2013.  The next step was for Exide to make a public notice and develop a Risk Reduction Plan (RRP) which they did on August 28, 2013.

The DTSC, with the data from the HRA - along with the stormwater pipe issues - struck Exide with a cease operations mandate, which Exide challenged and won, starting operations back up on the last week of June, 2013.

That's a nice little history lesson you might be thinking, but what does it have to do with anything?

My question, at this point in time, regards harm or risk to the community around the Exide facility in Vernon.  The public wants it shut down and they are concerned for their health, as the Los Angeles Times wrote October 8, 2013:

Joe Gonzalez of Boyle Heights demanded of regulators: "How dare you come back here and ask us what we want. You're killing us...at what point does this become blatant racism?"

De León, who called the meeting, noted that "there are no Exides in Brentwood ... in Malibu."

"Are our children worth as much as any other child?"

 Does Exide present a "significant risk to the surrounding community."?

Well, I guess that would depend on how one defines the term "significant."

Here is how the SCAQMD defines it:

Rule 1402

What's a MICR?

Rule 1402

What did the DTSC find in the HRA that indicated a "significant risk level?"

Source

Based on the data from the HRA, Exide presents a "significant risk level" for workers but not for the folks who live in the area.

The problem with those numbers; 156 in one million and 22 in one million, is that they are theoretical and based on a model.  Here is what the formula looks like:

Rule 1402

The MICR that is calculated is an estimate based on the premise that the receptor will be exposed to the maximum emission rate every day for a particular length of time (70 years for a residence).  All of this predicated on a calculated annual average concentration for all the chemicals emitted.  Those numbers are then multiplied by this thing they call in California the "Cancer Potency."

Cancer Potency, or the Slope Factor is how we determine that one in a million risk.  I written about it a lot in previous posts.  It assumes a straight line dose-response where no exposure = no cancer and any exposure = risk of cancer.  Remember that SCAQMD graph on arsenic in and around the Exide facility?

Source

Look at the sentence at the bottom.  The cancer potency derived from the slope of the line calculates 16.6 additional lung cancers per million for one nanogram of arsenic in one cubic meter of air inhaled everyday for 70 years.

Let me remind you how small a nanogram is.

• 1 milligram = 0.001 grams
• 1 microgram = 0.000001 grams
• 1 nonogram = 0.000000001 grams

I was curious to how that number was derived.  So I went to the Google and found a document from the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark.

Neutron activation analysis (NAA) has a detection limit of 0.1 ng for total arsenic

Okay, I was wondering how they can detect with any degree of confidence to the nanogram level.

Then I read this in the WHO document:

WHO

Wait...if the breathing rate is 20 cubic meters a day, and the estimated lower end is 20 ng, that would mean in a rural area the average amount of arsenic in air is about 1 nanogram per cubic meter.  The SCAQMD graph shows the average arsenic in the SCAQMD area to be just above 0.5 nanograms.  I thought that seemed low when I first saw the graph, but now it does not jive with what the WHO states should be found in industrial areas.

But I digress.  Back to slope factors:

WHO

Okay, that's a bunch of words.  What does it all mean?

WHO

The WHO estimates about 2 additional cancers per nanogram while the SCAQMD estimates 16 per nanogram.  That's how this process of looking at cancer risk works.  It's kind-of-sort-of quantitative but how accurate it is in actually determining the real risk is anyone's guess.  So what ever model they use, or data they depend on, once accepted becomes the way it is calculated.  They hope it reflects reality, but really what they want is the most protective model they can "scientifically" support.  The WHO supports 0.66 ng/m3 for a one in one million risk while California supports about 0.06 ng/m3 for the same risk.  Which one is correct?

As I have said before, this is how we do it, this is all we got, so...if you can support your slope factor then I will need to accept your estimated cancer risk.

The problem I have with this as it relates to Exide is that the DTSC used this calculated risk to meet the definition of "significant" which they then used as the reason to tell Exide to cease operation.

That's not what the estimate of risk calculated in the HRA was to be used for, and somebody at the DTSC should have known that.

Those values calculated by Exide and reported in the HRA are used to determine where effort needs to be placed in terms of controls.  This is done through the submission of a Risk Reduction Plan (RRP)

DTSC used those numbers claiming that they required the operation cease to "prevent or mitigate the substantial danger pursuant to Health and Safety Code Section 25186.2."

25186.2.  The department may temporarily suspend any permit, registration or certificate issued pursuant to this chapter prior to any hearing if the department determines that the action is necessary to prevent or mitigate an imminent and substantial danger to the public health or safety or the environment.

I went looking for California's definition of "imminent" in the Health & Safety Code

113810.  "Imminent health hazard" means a significant threat or danger to health that is considered to exist when there is evidence sufficient to show that a product, practice, circumstance, or event creates a situation that can cause food infection, food intoxication, disease transmission, vermin infestation, or hazardous condition that requires immediate correction or cessation of operation to prevent injury, illness, or death.

I went looking for the definition of "substantial" in California and this is what I found:

A substantial factor in causing harm is a factor that a reasonable person would consider to have contributed to the harm. It must be more than a remote or trivial factor. It does not have to be the only cause of the harm.

Okay, so you get the picture.  I think DTSC misused the information in the HRA - theoretical risk - to claim actual risk.  Apparently so did a Judge and Exide was up and running the last week of June 2013.

Remember that graph from the SCAQMD?  They included the data along with the graph.

Back to my question.  Does Exide pose a significant or substantial risk to the community?  Or, looking at it another way, would the community see their health positively impacted if Exide were closed?

Next Post:  If they only had a RCRA permit...Part 7

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If they only had a RCRA permit...Part 5

So the DTSC tells us in Exhibit 2 that they accept "a cumulative risk that does not exceed a one in one million (10-6) for cancer risk."

That did not sit right with me.  I wrote about California and how it calculates the slope factor for carcinogens and how it applies to the Proposition 65 notification requirements.  So I went about looking for that document.  And I found it:

Page 3

So DTSC accepts a 10-6 cumulative risk except when they accept a 10-5 cancer risk. This is one of the main problems in establishing risk.  Sometimes one in a million is okay, sometimes one in ten thousand is acceptable.

Okay, okay, I know what you are thinking.  The SCAQMD found a residential cancer risk of 22 in one million to the nearest residential receptor.  That's a 2.2 to the 10-5 risk and that's over one in 100,000.

Yeah, okay, that creates an increase risk - theoretical mind you - but a risk.  Not sure that 2.2 x 10-5 constitutes "an imminent and substantial danger to the public health or safety or the environment" though, even if you include the leaky stormwater pipes.

My question is, at this point in the discussion, does the arsenic emitted from Exide put the community at an imminent and substantial danger?  Remember our three intrepid reports at the Los Angeles Times?  Here is what they wrote about this risk:

In March, the South Coast Air Quality Management District reported that arsenic emissions from the plant created an elevated risk of cancer for as many as 110,000 people in an area stretching from Boyle Heights to Huntington Park.

I wonder where they got that number?  Oh, that's what the DTSC claims in Exhibit 2 of their justification to order Exide to halt operations:

18. Based on the Health Risk Assessment submitted to the SCAOMD, DTSC has determined that the Facility is operating its furnaces and its air pollution devices in a manner that is not sufficiently protective of human health and the environment, impacting as many as 110,000 residents in a large geographical area that includes portions of Vernon, Maywood, Huntington Park, Commerce, Boyle Heights and unincorporated areas of east Los Angeles. The predominant contributor to both chronic and acute cancer risk and non-cancer hazard is arsenic emissions from the Facility, with the primary human organs that are harmed are the cardiovascular system, central nervous system, developmental system, respiratory system and skin.

What this tells me is that the Exide facility in Vernon, California is pumping into the air enough arsenic to harm 110,000 people, causing cancer and affecting their cardiovascular system, central nervous system, developmental system, respiratory system and skin!

So...what did the SCAQMD find regarding arsenic and Exide?  Let's look at this graphic first:

Page 2 of the report

Before I get into the details of what is going on, I want you to look closely at this graphic paying particular attention to the "y" axis.  Do this while repeating "and non-cancer hazard is arsenic emissions from the Facility, with the primary human organs that are harmed are [sic] the cardiovascular system, central nervous system, developmental system, respiratory system and skin."

If you have read any of my other posts you will understand why this one bugs me.  Do you see how much arsenic was detected in the air around the facility?  Not milligrams (1,000th of a gram), not micrograms (1,000,000th of a gram) but nanograms - 1,000,000,000th of a gram.

Yeppers, that's what we now look at for arsenic in the air.  Nanograms per cubic meter.  So my next question will be, does less than 3.5 nanogram per cubic meter (the highest amount shown on the graph) present an "imminent and substantial danger?"

Remember those loud and angry folks yelling “Shut it down! Shut it down!”?  Those folks look to the DTSC for an answer.  They look to us scientists, toxicologists, experts for an answer to their number one concern "are we being harmed?"  And the DTSC gives them this:

Based on an average of about 2 nanograms of arsenic in each cubic meter of air, Exide is impacting "as many as 110,000 residents."  And "the predominant contributor to both chronic and acute cancer risk and non-cancer hazard is arsenic emissions from the Facility, with the primary human organs that are harmed are the cardiovascular system, central nervous system, developmental system, respiratory system and skin."

Is that an accurate representation of the risk these residence are encountering?


If they only had a RCRA permit...Part 6

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