Coffee, Acrylamide, and Proposition 65 - Part 6

California contends that any product consumed that has less than 0.2 micrograms of acrylamide can be considered as presenting no significant cancer risk.

Cool...

Now let's look at Starbucks et. al. They sell a cup of coffee in California. Coffee, we are told, contains the chemical "acrylamide," and acrylamide is known to the state to cause cancer.

Scientists believe the acrylamide in food is a product of the Maillard reaction. This reaction occurs when sugars and amino acids are heated above 248° F, or 120° C. (Source)

Okay...

With that knowledge, a couple of things come into play. First, because the acrylamide shows up as part of the process in roasting the coffee, it does not meet the definition of "naturally occurring" (and therefore can be ignored.) Second, we are told that a product that contains less than 0.2 micrograms of acrylamide presents no significant cancer risk.

How much acrylamide is in a cup of coffee?

One single cup of coffee (160 ml) delivered on average from 0.45 micrograms acrylamide in roasted coffee to 3.21 micrograms. (Source)

Starbucks sells coffee in  Short (8 oz.), Tall (12 oz.), and Venti (20 oz.). 160 ml is equal to 5.4 ounces.

the smallest dose that we can get from Starbucks then is an 8 oz  cup.

So...we can assume there are 0.45 micrograms per 5.4 ounces or 0.08 micrograms per ounce.

Which means the smallest dose of coffee from Starbucks - a Short - contains 0.66 micrograms of acrylamide. That's 3 times more than the amount that California states presents no significant cancer risk.

This means that drinking a Short cup of regular Starbucks Coffee jumps from a one in 100,000 cancer risk to about three in 100,000.

Or, if the background chance of cancer in a lifetime for a population is 25% - one in four - then drinking one Short  cup of regular coffee from Starbucks - each day - for 70 years - jumps your chance of cancer from 25,000 per 100,000 up to 25,003 per 100,000.

That number - 25,003 is three additional cancers in a lifetime - 70 years - over a background of 25,000 cancers we expect to see - estimated from drinking a Short (8oz) cup of Starbucks everyday for 70 years. Hey, its possible.

That number - "three additional" - is only "real" if the math is correct. And therein lies the problem with all of this. Is the "three additional" not just probable, but even possible?

California tells us that:

The Proposition 65 “no significant risk level” (NSRL) is defined in regulation as the daily intake.

We discussed this in a previous post. The NSRL is the daily intake for which California tells us presents no significant cancer risk. It is the amount that our calculation tells us would present no more than one additional cancer in a 70 year lifetime per 100,000 people.

Where am I going with this? Let's look at what we are faced with when we look at acrylamide in something we consume. There will be a:

• Concentration that gives us one additional cancer is a "No Significant Risk Level - NSRL
• Concentration that gives us two more cancers, for a total of three, is a significant risk level and requires notification.

Up to 0.2 micrograms of acrylamide in your coffee is okay - no notification - no significant risk.
But once you exceed 0.2 micrograms in one cup sold, then you need to be notified of the risk.

The problem here is that California does not look at this risk in any form of degree. Once you exceed the NSRL you present a significant risk. Three in 100,000, 300 in 100,000, 30,000 in 100,000...are all looked at the same.

The question that I ask is this: Is the public better protected knowing that the acrylamide in a Short cup of coffee presents a three in 100,000 cancer risk? If a cancer risk of one in 100,000 presents "no significant cancer risk," then how much concern should there be when you jump to three?

And since we are so close in what is present and the NSRL, how confident are we in that number that claims no more than one additional cancer in 100,000? The difference between notification and not having to notify is a big deal for a company that sells food.

If you are going to spend time going to court and printing up notices, and working to convince the public are product is safe, then the number 0.2 micrograms per day had better be a real number.

Is it?

How did they come up with that number, 0.2 micrograms per day?

I'll show you...



We are going to spend the next post or two looking at the math. To get to 0.2 micrograms we had to know the cancer potency. What is that? Here is what California states:

Cancer potency factors may also be referred to as “cancer slope factors”. 

Once we know the cancer slope - the cancer potency - we plug it into that formula and it spits out the NSRL. 0.2 micrograms was derived from a cancer slope that was determined by forcing the line through the data so that zero dose = zero cancer risk. Right out of the box. we now no that the cancer slope is not a real number. It is a number that we agreed on because someone said at some time that any exposure presents a cancer risk.

So here we are in 2018 using that same line of thinking even though a lot of us think its wrong and carcinogens behave similar to non-carcinogens and not a straight line - linear - for 0 dose/0 risk.

To get to the NSRL of no more than one in 100,000 additional cancer risk, you need to calculate the cancer slope (cancer potency).

Let's have some fun shall we?



Next Post: Coffee, Acrylamide, and Proposition 65 - Part 7