Risk is like a trampoline: Part 2

Risk = Hazard x Probability of the hazard happening.  The higher the hazard (bad thing) and the higher the chance of that bad thing happening, the greater the risk.  Trampolines are good way to illustrate this because the hazard is real and known.

So there you are, confronted by your kids wanting a trampoline to play on in their backyard.

The easiest way out is to choose the NIMBY response and put an end to the discussion.  What's NIMBY you may be wondering?

Not In My Back Yard!

Easy!  Only you underestimate the tenacity of your children and their desire to have a trampoline in their backyard.  The more you shout NIMBY the more they dig their heals in as well.  However, as easy as NIMBY is to end the discussion and prevent the risk, there are other risks that come into play.

It would be nice if the world was black and white, but it's not.  So if you NIMBY, the kids point out, you will also deprive them of: the benefits that come into play as well as the risks.  The kids point out to you, but dad....trampolines are good for our health!:

• Bouncing on a trampoline will help your children to a brighter athletic future!
• Recreation, entertainment and fitness right at home.
• Trampolining can influence child’s academic success.
• One of the most important benefits of the trampoline is the development of body balance.
• Another important teaching aspect of the trampoline is rhythm and bilaterally.
• Trampolining is good for children who are reluctant to begin physical activities.
• Increases Lymphatic Circulation
• Increased Bone Density

And if all of those great reasons are not enough, here is my favorite (and I'm not making this up):

• Bouncing or Jumping on a trampoline is a Cellular Exercise

You see, according to Sundance Trampolines, "your body has about 60 trillion cells. The 2 to 4 G forces (gravitational pull) involved in bouncing squeezes out toxins" just like this:

Cell being squeezed by jumping on a trampoline  forcing out bad stuff

"Then, during the brief weightless period when the body is suspended in the air, the lower pressure in the cell promotes the movement of nutrients into the cells." 

Cell in 'fluffy' state able to take in good stuff

"Thus the flow of materials to and from cells is improved. It is like getting every cell in your body to exercise."

OK, so that last bullet convinced you, didn't it?  C'mon admit it, you are now a little more receptive to the idea, I mean look at the benefits!  But there is still risk if you say "yes".  In fact your Google search shows that pretty succinctly:

531,378 trampoline-related injuries over the study period, an average of 88,563 each year. Further, 95 percent of those injuries occurred on home trampolines.  The most common injuries were soft tissue (256,509), while fractures and dislocations were the next (168,402). The age group with the most injuries was those in the 5-12 year range. The vast majority of the injuries were to the extremities, representing 71 percent of all injuries.

Still, the benefit of exercise plus fact that thing about their cells and toxins and stuff.....well you feel your resolve weakening. "No, you can't have a trampoline," you tell them, "unless you can make it so that there will be little chance for fracture and dislocation injuries."

"Ahhh, but that will take all the fun out of it!" the kids yell.  "No trampoline then!" you boldly state.

Now the kids are no dummies, they've done their homework on this subject and present to you two trampolines that will meet this requirement.

This version uses protective measures to minimize the chance of falling off the sides.  The hazard is minimized through engineering controls.

This version minimizes the damage from falling off by having the impact change from "onto the ground" to "onto the water."  The hazard is minimized through where the activity is to be located..




"Great idea kids," you say.  "But the homeowners association will not allow that protection net to stick up over the fence line.  And that other one requires water, not to mention the possibility of instead of breaking an arm, you drown!"

"Jeepers Dad!" the kids whine, which touches your heart.  "OK," you relent, "you can have a regular trampoline, but you must follow these rules:"

Adult supervision.....

...only one person on the trampoline at a time.  This is what we would refer to as administrative controls.






So there you have it.  The same potential risk handled in different ways.  In all except the NIMBY situation, the activity is allowed to proceed under certain conditions.  The risk is still there, only minimized to a level of acceptance.

Given any situation, understanding the true risk and real benefit will help you make an objective determination as to whether it is worth taking on that risk.  NIMBY stops activities that have real benefits and blind acceptance without any controls increases that risk.  There is a middle ground, and that's where we need to focus our attention on.

"There were 1.2 million new trampoline sales in 2004, indicating that parents continue to purchase this as a form of fun and exercise for children." (1)

They can't all be wrong or right on this activity.

And that's how risk is like a trampoline.






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Risk is like a trampoline: Part 1

Peter M. Sandman defines risk as follows:

Risk = Hazard + Outrage.

And from a sociological point of view, that is, the need to move something forward with approval, the understanding of risk is predicated on perception.  But perception has nothing to do with quantifying real risk.  In other words, it is either dangerous or it is not.  What you think does not impact that risk one iota.

Perception can therefore be manipulated but the actual risk is either there or not there.  Perception also plays into how the degree of risk is also determined.  What one person sees as risky, another sees as mundane.  Again, the risk that is actually present has nothing to do with this perception.

So how do we look at risk, that is,how do determine the possibility that something harmful might happen?

One way to look at risk is to define it based on the anticipated outcome and the likelihood of that outcome taking place.  This is complicated, and again gets back to perception but also includes a healthy heaping of statistics.

So we're stuck with perception in the determination of risk.  So maybe the key is to try and look at it risk a bit more objectively while understanding our own bias towards that event.

I have spent my working life managing hazardous waste.  Hazardous waste is regulated more severely than almost any other hazardous material out there.  Hazardous waste is assumed to present an elevated risk to human health and the environment.  In fact, the regulations are such that it is regulated as more hazardous than when it is made, transported, stored, and utilized.

My perception of hazardous waste is based on my understanding of the material.  I look at it differently than most, especially John Q. Citizen.  With my newly minted MSPH, I now look at it entirely different than I used to.  Same hazardous waste, different perspective of its hazard.

Is there a risk?  Maybe...maybe not.  Depends on what your tolerance is for the possible outcome it presents.

Look at how Congress defined  "hazardous waste" in RCRA §1004(5):

(a) Cause, or significantly contribute to, an increase in mortality or an increase in serious irreversible, or incapacitating reversible, illness; or

(b) Pose a substantial present or potential hazard to human health or the environment when improperly treated, stored, transported, or disposed of, or otherwise managed.

How does one tell another person what significantly means?  What about substantial or potential?  What is a serious illness?

These words are not unique to hazardous waste, they are used all the time in defining why the need for a particular course of action (i.e. law/regulation).  What these words lead to is a perpetual state of  misunderstanding and misidentifying situations that require either our concern or tolerance.

This why I am an advocate for teaching risk analysis from elementary school all the way through college.  Not just the statistics part - the probability an outcome may occur - but the ability to look at it from all angles and make a reasonable determination of what the level of concern one should have based on sound science, logic, research, and analysis.

Everything, and I mean everything presents a risk.  Sometimes not doing something presents a greater risk than had you done it.  Sometimes the risk is acute, sometimes chronic.  Sometimes it impacts some but not others equally exposed.  Its complicated.

So where to start?  First lets look at three basics involving our understanding of risk that are always in play:

1. There is real risk
2. There is regulations based on a perceived risk
3. There is hype

Number 1 is where all the time and effort needs to be spent.  Number 2 demands nothing more than an attitude to do it like they say.  Number 3 should be ignored.  Unfortunately, telling fact from fiction is difficult, especially when agenda driven "turthisms" are plopped out there like cow pies.

So onward down the trail towards understanding how to evaluate real risk.  First though, lets make it easy on ourselves by accepting two premises.  These will help move you from apprehension towards acceptance even if your spider-senses are tingling. We can reduce any hazard, thereby reducing the risk through:

1. Sound Management
2. Engineering Controls

And now, without further blabbering...I mean introduction, why risk is like a trampoline, well actually the evaluation of risk using a trampoline as an example is where I'm heading.

Risk = Hazard x Probability of the hazard happening.

The higher the hazard (bad thing) and the higher the chance of that bad thing happening, the greater the risk.

So your kids:

Want a trampoline


You're response is:

1. No! Never!
2. No, unless these conditions are met first.
3. Yes, but under these conditions.
4. Yes.

Same trampoline, different response. Why?  Because the response is based on the perception of the negative and/or positive outcomes associated with what could happen if the trampoline is brought into the backyard.

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Next post: Risk is like a trampoline: Part 2

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